Systems modeling
TOWARD DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIPS AMONG NATURAL AND HUMAN SYSTEMS
PURPOSENeither ecosystems nor economies work in the one-way, straight-line, ways that many models suggest. Or, as in an aphorism penned by George Box (a statistician) "all models are wrong." Biophysical and behavioral reality involves balancing and reinforcing feedback loops (think snowball effects), lags, thresholds, and a host of other complications that are not always appropriate to assume away for the sake of keeping things simple.
But the second half of Box's statement is that "some models are useful." Systems thinking is, in our view, a pretty good way of improving the chances that one's model of reality—even when a simplified one—is "useful." And sometimes, of course, that thinking allows no other course of action than building a systems model where the model captures more of that real-world complexity and becomes less "wrong." applications and outcomesWe have used systems thinking and formal systems modeling to expose flaws in conventional wisdom regarding how to sustain forest health and forest economies, to simulate the ecosystem services effects of fishery restoration, and, most recently, to explore relationships between river cleanup, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate vulnerability in Delhi, India. (An extremely simple, conceptual version of that model is pictured below.)
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places and projectsEastern U.S.
Modeling the impacts of oyster restoration in the Chesapeake Bay (page coming soon) U.S. Midwest
No current projects here. What research would you tackle with this approach? U.S. West, Including Alaska
Our systems model, built for a confidential client, provided a way of testing the idea that investment in forest products manufacturing capacity could limit timber and other ecosystem service losses due to wildfire. south and Southeast Asia
As part of the Yamuna River Project we are building a model to evaluate the climate mitigation and adaptation consequences of wastewater treatment, floodplain restoration, and solid waste management actions in the National Capital Region. Here is our Phase I report. Cross-Cutting
No current projects here. What research would you tackle with this approach? ResourcesThere are several software options for systems modeling, but with our experts and collaborators spread across several locations, we like the cloud-based, real-time collaboration that is possible with Insight Maker. We also like that the platform is free to use and comes with great tutorials and an engaged user community.
And if you want an old-school textbook to go with your cloud-based modeling, you can't go wrong with Thinking in Systems: A Primer, by Donella Meadows (edited by Diana Wright. (2008.) Chelsea Green Publishing: White River Junction, Vermont). You will never play with a Slinky the same way again! |