ecological-economic context

the region

To some, drilling for oil and gas in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (Coastal Plain) promises abundant, cheap energy that would displace oil imports, lower domestic gas prices, boost employment, and raise revenue to bring down the deficit.These promises are based on outdated information and rosy assumptions about how much oil the Coastal Plain may hold, the price the oil may fetch, and the speed with which oil and gas could be found, extracted, and brought to market. Given the risk to ecosystems and human welfare that oil exploration and development imposes, promised benefits must be closely, carefully, and critically examined.

Key Findings

• Arctic Refuge production would have little impact on U.S. and global oil supply or on U.S. oil imports
  • Even if each barrel pumped from the Coastal Plain meant one less barrel imported, imports, as a portion of all U.S. oil consumption would fall by only 4% to 48%, and that is at the projected peak of Coastal Plain production.
• Arctic Refuge oil would have virtually no effect on energy prices
  • At best, consumers could save 1% on gas 15 years after Congressional approval.
• Fiscal benefits would be slow in coming
  • If approval were to be granted in 2018, the first payments to the U.S. Treasury would begin in 2022 for leases, and in 2030 for royalties from production, assuming no delays.​
• Opening the Refuge may increase the deficit
  • Currently, the Trump Administration claims $1-1.8 billion could be raised by lease sales alone in the next ten years.
  • The Center for American Progress, meanwhile, finds no more than $37.5 million in federal revenue could be raised from leases over the same period, or just 2% of the Administration’s estimate.

outcomes 

• These findings were presented at the November 2017 U.S. Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources on the Potential for Oil and Gas Exploration in the 1002 Area
• While the Trump Administration authorized opening the Arctic Refuge to drilling in December 2017, the Department of the Interior and Bureau of Land Management have only received one permit application for drilling, which has been deemed “inadequate” and lacking in information and detail as is

Source: https://www.fws.gov/uploadedImages/Region_7/NWRS/Zone_1/Arctic/Sections/Maps/shademap.jpg#a
Management boundaries in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which encompasses 19.6 million acres in northeastern Alaska

Resources

• Technical Report detailing the economics of oil development of drilling in the refuge
  • Executive Summary​ with report highlights
• Webcast of Senate Committee Hearing on Potential Oil and Gas Development in the Arctic Refuge ​​

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The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is a vast, wilderness landscape of tundra plains, boreal forests, dramatic mountain peaks, and coastal lagoons situated in the nation’s wildest, most northern edge. It is like no other place in America.
—Lois Epstein, Engineer and Arctic Program Director, The Wilderness Society

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see also

National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska | Mitigation Strategy

Maryland | Costs of Natural Gas Development